Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.849924 1.953179 2.061162 2.182871 2.316672 2.459779 2.625077
2025-10-05 1.717500 1.864239 2.024891 2.215192 2.436272 2.687301 2.997252
2025-10-12 1.637002 1.810857 2.007360 2.248588 2.540574 2.887795 3.340260
2025-10-19 1.573508 1.766782 1.990848 2.274039 2.628814 3.067895 3.668413
2025-10-26 1.504236 1.708698 1.950500 2.263308 2.666365 3.182204 3.917915
2025-11-02 1.445088 1.657813 1.913724 2.251582 2.697938 3.286876 4.160476
2025-11-09 1.387281 1.604615 1.869836 2.226069 2.706951 3.358679 4.360296
2025-11-16 1.334857 1.555038 1.827112 2.198162 2.708825 3.418068 4.544847
2025-11-23 1.300429 1.526132 1.808671 2.200205 2.750259 3.534742 4.827809
2025-11-30 1.275660 1.508065 1.802788 2.217864 2.813427 3.686685 5.184123
2025-12-07 1.234399 1.466804 1.764234 2.187974 2.805292 3.729031 5.360779
2025-12-14 1.193152 1.423977 1.721689 2.150036 2.782338 3.745504 5.492673
2025-12-21 1.152985 1.381773 1.679063 2.110896 2.756567 3.757520 5.622273
2025-12-28 1.140469 1.375722 1.685022 2.141152 2.837361 3.948071 6.111743
2026-01-04 1.129308 1.370844 1.692031 2.172754 2.921655 4.151604 6.661804
2026-01-11 1.116326 1.362873 1.694153 2.196824 2.995089 4.343015 7.223531
2026-01-18 1.093049 1.339985 1.674298 2.186676 3.011977 4.434922 7.585794
2026-01-25 1.070811 1.317803 1.654561 2.175586 3.026224 4.522689 7.954975
2026-02-01 1.045740 1.290957 1.627206 2.151449 3.016859 4.564947 8.223113
2026-02-08 1.021237 1.264244 1.599185 2.125037 3.001927 4.594957 8.466674
2026-02-15 1.006359 1.250594 1.589605 2.126971 3.035714 4.722786 8.992176
2026-02-22 0.996476 1.243653 1.589490 2.143685 3.096125 4.909683 9.728141
2026-03-01 0.974304 1.218692 1.562042 2.115392 3.074487 4.925550 9.976426